COVID-19 modelling used by Manitoba Public Health shows that the current restrictions may have averted a much worse scenario that could have seen more than 1,000 new cases of the virus per day in the latter half of November.
In the model used by the province there are four scenarios depicting different levels of restrictions along with compliance.
Scenario one – extreme: minimal public health restrictions are introduced and compliance with basic public health recommendations is low, resulting in significant COVID-19 activity, including a rapid rise in cases
Scenario two – severe: some public health restrictions are introduced but compliance with fundamental public health recommendations remains low, resulting in increased cases though at a less rapid rate than scenario one
Scenario three – moderate: additional public health restrictions are implemented and compliance improves, with individuals beginning to adhere to fundamental public health recommendations, resulting in a level of COVID-19 activity which, if sustained, is manageable for the health system
Scenario four – controlled: strong public health restrictions are put in place and compliance is observed as individuals follow the fundamental public health recommendations, resulting in the lowest possible level of COVID activity.
Manitoba’s chief public health officer Dr Brent Roussin said that the case numbers over the past few weeks have strained the health system which is why the current restrictions have been put in place.
“The actual daily data shows that without these measures, our cases would have been even higher, with significant consequences for our health system and the mortality of our most vulnerable citizens,” said Roussin. “Over the past few days, while we have seen COVID-19 case numbers drop down a bit within the projected range of case numbers, we are not out of the woods yet and must remain vigilant to prevent another spike.”
The modelling shows that for every 48 people who test positive three end up in the hospital and one dies. 208 Manitobans lost their lives to COVID-19 since the latest restrictions began on November 12 until December 3.
Roussin noted that public health orders will likely need to stay in place as the province is yet to see “significant and sustained downward changes to case numbers under the recent public health interventions on hospital admissions.”
It is expected that Roussin will announce early next week what, if any, changes will be made to the current public health orders that are slated to expire on December 11.
Continued action is necessary to reduce the spread of this virus, and ensure we do not push our health system and our health-care providers beyond their capacity to treat not just COVID-19 patients but any Manitoban who needs care at this time,” said Lanette Siragusa, chief nursing officer, Shared Health.
© News4.ca 2020
